Money Line: Mets (Harvey) vs. Phillies (Buchholz)
-1.5 spread: Pirates (Taillon) vs. Reds (Davis)
PICK: Pirates -1.5
Money Wagered/Money to Win: 1/2.5
WHY TO PICK THE METS:
Matt Harvey was phenomenal in his season debut against the Braves last week. He pitched 6.2 innings 2ER while throwing only 77 pitches-The two earned runs allowed we solo shots by Matt Kemp. Watching first hand, Matt Harvey was not back to his form of two years ago; rather, he was a new pitcher with a slower fastball, yet pristine control on his pitches. Look for Matt to repeat his success against the weak Phillies lineup tonight at 7:10.
WHY TO PICK THE PIRATES -1.5:
The pitching matchup in this game is once again the deciding factor. Jameson Taillon, a young highly touted prospect from the Pirates’ farm system was called up in June of 2016, and already looks like a star. In his opening week start, he went punch for punch with Chris Sale at Fenway Park and pitched a gem: 7IP 5H 0ER 3BB. Last season Taillon lived up to his prospect hype by earning a 3.38ERA and a 1.12WHIP. Expect bigger and better things tonight and into the future.
On the other end, is Taillon’s opponent tonight- Rookie Davis. To put it frankly, Rookie Davis is not ready for the big leagues. Cincinnati is desperate for anyone to pitch and was forced to move Davis up to the majors this year due to the lack of talent at the position above him. In his first career start last week, he pitched only three innings and allowed four earned runs. Davis does not have the skills to compete at this level yet and expect Cincinnati to move him back down to AAA at some point this season.
The reason that the Pirates should be chosen -1.5 is because the pirates are highly favorited in this game: -184. In other words, you need to bet $18 to win $10 if you were to take the money line bet. The -1.5 spread is +105, which is a significant difference. Since Davis should let up at least 3 runs in this game, taking the -1.5 spread is as safe as it can get.
Keep an eye on Taillon and Harvey tonight as they will bring the bread home for those betting. The Pirates will not allow two losses in a row to the Reds in their first home series of the season, and Mets will continue to beat up on the Phillies as usual (27-12 since the start of 2015).
Written by Mike DiBiase Photo Credit: http://dailystache.net